Microsoft and Sony should not launch new consoles at E3 2019

With the excitement of E3 building as we approach the start date, rumors and wish lists are flying. One hot topic for the console giants is, “Will we see a new Xbox and Playstation?” Despite any building excitement I may have for a new console, I believe they should NOT launch anything new this year. I know this isn’t a popular opinion, but let me explain.

Traditional console sales overall are decreasing. Between 2017 and 2018, PS4 console sales dropped by 1.64 million units and the Xbox One dropped by 1.25 million units (1). Now, some can attribute the drop in console sales as anticipation for new generation machines or the saturation of the console market. While this is true, the number of blockbuster games that has launched for each platform has increased. Also, during the same period, the Nintendo Switch console sales increased by 5.2 million units. I attribute this to the change in the video game industry, and not just hype for a new console. More people are playing games away from large TV’s and do not want to be tethered to a chair in the family room.

To compound on being tethered to a chair in the family room, hours spent watching programming on an actual TV is much less than years past. The trend is that consumers, specifically in the USA, will spend more time on mobile devices (2). I think the video game industry needs to latch on to this trend. Games like Fortnite and Brawl Stars are immensely popular and do not require expensive and powerful consoles. The graphics on those games are relatively simple compared to Destiny 2, meaning they can be played on cheaper and less power machines. They can also be played anywhere there is an internet connection. I think this is the future.

Any speaking of that future, two big things happened this first week of June 2019.

One, Google Stadia went on pre-order (3). This is the sort of system I believe is the future of gaming. The cost of entry is very low, there is a free or paid model for games, and the bandwidth required is low. I have personally pre-ordered a system and excited for it to arrive in November. Now, do I think that Google Stadia will be perfect when it launches? No. (Larry Page please don’t close my Google accounts!). I think there are going to be some growing pains and learning experiences. If Microsoft and Sony are smart, they will wait and see how Stadia works out. Microsoft has one of the top cloud infrastructure on the earth.. Or in the cloud? Not sure how it really works. I think they should see how to leverage that platform and build a better system. If they take a lesson from Apple (Bill Gates don’t be mad), sometimes it is better to launch a better product, even if it means being second to the market. A side note here, Sony and Microsoft just agreed to work together for cloud gaming infrastructure (4). Building that system together could give consumers an unimaginable library of games, while also having a top notch gaming experience.

The second happening this week was at Apple’s WWDC. While I wasn’t invited (no hard feelings Tim Cook), I am super excited for iOS13 that will launch this fall. It has a long list of new features, but the one I am most excited about is the ability to connect a Playstation 4 or Xbox One controller to the iPhone (5). Let that sink in for a moment. Apple just opened the door for iPhone and iPad to have console quality gaming. While I cannot fit an Xbox controller in my pocket easily, I will have the ability to play high quality games, straight from my phone. Being an Apple user, I am excited for this (and don’t really care if this is already supported on other phones). In my opinion this is Apple’s way of entering the gaming market and leveraging the existing iPhone and iPad user base. Cell phones are already very powerful computers and can support high quality gaming.

Lastly, I think that Microsoft and Sony need to wait to launch a new console until 5G internet infrastructure is widespread. 5G promises to deliver over 1Gb/s speeds (6) over a cellular network, while most home WiFi speeds barely reach 250 Mb/s. Between the faster speed and low latency (which really means less lag for gaming!) we will be able to take out gaming on the road. We will be able to play graphic intensive multiplayer games while riding in an autonomous car speeding down the highway. You might think it’s a stretch, but this is our future. If Microsoft and Sony launch a console this year that does not incorporate this technology, I believe they will miss out and be scrambling to play catch up.

I think the industry needs more time to evolve into the streaming and cloud based gaming services. If Microsoft and Sony launch a new console this year, I suspect sales and the overall adoption will be low. If they hold the “wait and see” approach and build a system that leverages Microsoft’s Azure cloud system, I think they will dominate the market. And, on the other hand, if I am wrong and they release a console, I’ll still be pumped and will probably purchase it.

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Edit: After this article was posted, Microsoft announced Project Scarlett. “Project Scarless will set a new bar for console power, speed and performance, arriving Holiday 2020 alongside Halo Infinite. With a custom-designed AMD processor, high bandwidth GDDR6 memory, and a next generation solid state drive (SSD), Project Scarlett will give developers the power they need to bring their creative visions to life. Thousands of games across four console generations will look and play best on Project Scarlett.” See Microsoft’s website for more details: https://www.xbox.com/en-US/project-scarlett

Blue Shell Gamer

Living the Video Game Evolution

Microsoft and Sony should not launch new consoles at E3 2019